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Post #63: Straight from the CDC horse’s mouth

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Straight from the CDC horse’s mouth (please click on “posts” tab to see table below correctly)

US COVID-19 (Corona virus) deaths continue to PLUMMET. Specifically, to 181 deaths for the week ended 7/11/20 from 3,668 weekly deaths a month ago. US Corona virus-attributed deaths have most thankfully dropped each and every week since the 4/18/20 weekly peak of 16,897 amidst sharply rising new cases.  How does one spell rapidly rising herd immunity or the disease’s bell curve “playing out.”

But, too many of our elected officials and bureaucrats – and, of course, the Pravda press – insist that we face a “second wave” crisis that ultimately threatens to kill many more Americans if renewed shutdowns and lockdowns aren’t instituted and enforced.  Talk about adding insult to economic and civil liberties evisceration injury (also known as despotism) thanks to potentially doubling down on officials’ Corona virus policy response.

Plus, the media continues to broadcast overwhelmed hospitals related to spreading Corona virus cases.  Often, sharply rising bed utilization rates across the country are referred to without considering that this is being materially caused by a surge of so-called elective surgeries and other deemed “non-essential” medical procedures, which are now being done, after having been suspended for roughly three months.  This was kindly brought to my attention by a bright and very well-read subscriber to my dkanalytics youtube channel, a lady by the name of Debi Duckels.  Debi, a fellow Floridian, also dug deeply into Florida State medical data, which showed that out of 47,933 statewide hospital beds, 8,239 (as of about 12 noon ET on July 15th) are occupied by patients with the primary diagnosis being the Corona virus.  That’s 17.2%.  Not exactly “virus overwhelming.”

In addition to re-instituting shutdowns and telling us that hospitals are being, or soon will be, hopelessly overwhelmed (when have you heard that one before, yet the results stood in stark contrast?), “everyone” needs to wear a mask, and social distancing must be adhered to — OR ELSE!  From a county in Maryland last week, courtesy of a friend:

Truly Orwellian. And this against the backdrop of plummeting Corona virus deaths in the US.  You can’t make this stuff up!

Oh yes, those CDC COVID-19 weekly US death numbers from this July 15th, 2020 during the morning hours ET (before they disappear or are altered?).  Please see below.  I’m getting the data from this link

Data as of  Start week  End Week  Group  State  Indicator  COVID-19 Deaths  Total Deaths  Percent of Expected Deaths  Pneumonia Deaths  Pneumonia and COVID-19 Deaths  Influenza Deaths  Pneumonia, Influenza, or COVID-19 Deaths 
07/14/2020 02/01/2020 02/01/2020 By week United States Week-ending 0 58,325 98% 3,774 0 478 4,252
07/14/2020 02/08/2020 02/08/2020 By week United States Week-ending 1 59,069 99% 3,777 0 518 4,296
07/14/2020 02/15/2020 02/15/2020 By week United States Week-ending 0 58,319 99% 3,797 0 554 4,351
07/14/2020 02/22/2020 02/22/2020 By week United States Week-ending 5 58,286 100% 3,654 1 561 4,219
07/14/2020 02/29/2020 02/29/2020 By week United States Week-ending 5 58,486 102% 3,773 3 640 4,415
07/14/2020 03/07/2020 03/07/2020 By week United States Week-ending 34 58,638 101% 3,905 16 622 4,544
07/14/2020 03/14/2020 03/14/2020 By week United States Week-ending 52 57,672 101% 3,896 27 611 4,531
07/14/2020 03/21/2020 03/21/2020 By week United States Week-ending 561 58,509 103% 4,494 249 546 5,345
07/14/2020 03/28/2020 03/28/2020 By week United States Week-ending 3,126 62,478 112% 6,115 1,411 440 8,220
07/14/2020 04/04/2020 04/04/2020 By week United States Week-ending 9,907 71,649 128% 9,831 4,716 477 15,263
07/14/2020 04/11/2020 04/11/2020 By week United States Week-ending 16,011 78,325 141% 11,887 7,173 471 20,856
07/14/2020 04/18/2020 04/18/2020 By week United States Week-ending 16,897 76,001 140% 11,291 7,252 262 21,011
07/14/2020 04/25/2020 04/25/2020 By week United States Week-ending 15,209 72,879 135% 10,239 6,520 143 18,975
07/14/2020 05/02/2020 05/02/2020 By week United States Week-ending 12,969 68,081 127% 8,815 5,455 64 16,373
07/14/2020 05/09/2020 05/09/2020 By week United States Week-ending 10,949 65,258 124% 7,655 4,626 46 14,015
07/14/2020 05/16/2020 05/16/2020 By week United States Week-ending 8,933 62,435 119% 6,565 3,690 19 11,824
07/14/2020 05/23/2020 05/23/2020 By week United States Week-ending 6,932 59,096 113% 5,660 2,889 22 9,721
07/14/2020 05/30/2020 05/30/2020 By week United States Week-ending 5,850 56,359 109% 4,991 2,373 10 8,478
07/14/2020 06/06/2020 06/06/2020 By week United States Week-ending 4,617 54,732 104% 4,564 2,002 11 7,190
07/14/2020 06/13/2020 06/13/2020 By week United States Week-ending 3,668 52,189 101% 3,981 1,630 10 6,026
07/14/2020 06/20/2020 06/20/2020 By week United States Week-ending 2,783 48,581 94% 3,469 1,189 5 5,068
07/14/2020 06/27/2020 06/27/2020 By week United States Week-ending 1,463 40,438 78% 2,341 559 6 3,251
07/14/2020 07/04/2020 07/04/2020 By week United States Week-ending 522 28,269 54% 1,417 257 0 1,682
07/14/2020 07/11/2020 07/11/2020 By week United States Week-ending 181 10,378 20% 528 87


Caveat: The start and end week dates given by the CDC are the same, which is unexplainable to me.

Parting food for thought: given what is on offer in a “global sense,” including the unprecedented amount of money that will most likely be printed as the economy stands to take it on virus policy chin anew, do you think it might be a good idea to hold some physical gold and silver stored outside the banking system, preferably in your possession (if you can’t hold it, you don’t own it)?

Greetings,

Dan

FYI: Stylistic improvements, additional source links, and tertiary expansions of topics addressed were made past the initial July 15th, 2020 publishing date.  That said, neither the post’s initial content or its stance were altered.

Post publishing link addendums on mask front.

The obligatory boilerplate:

This commentary is not intended as investment advice or as an investment recommendation. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Price and yield are subject to daily change and as of the specified date. Information provided is solely the opinion of the author at the time of writing.  Nothing in the commentary should be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell securities. Information provided has been prepared from sources deemed to be reliable but is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision.  Liquid securities can fall in value.

 

 

Post #62: The destructive Corona virus policy response, revisited

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The destructive Corona virus policy response, revisited

The economic and civil rights implications of an absolutely misguided (and I would argue tyrannical) US/western nation Corona virus policy response that is now increasingly focusing on daily new cases instead of on daily mortalities, or on mortality rate trends, are potentially devastating.  Never mind that sharply rising new US Corona virus cases, or the so-called “second wave,” have typically been accompanied by dramatically lower confirmed new daily deaths, as a younger population cohort is again permitted (for now, however short-lived) to venture back out into the wider world — a cohort that has a miniscule risk of dying should they contract the virus (“new cases”).  In fact, it is precisely this cohort again being “out and about” which will help put this virus down (spreading herd immunity, which widespread lockdowns postponed).  

Here’s what the CDC is saying about the fatality rate for the Corona virus broken down by age (their current scenario 5, which is their best estimate):

  • 0-49 years old: 0.05%
  • 50-64 years old: 0.2%
  • 65+ years old: 1.3%
  • Overall ages: 0.4%

Note that the overall case fatality rate of the Corona virus in the US, according to the CDC, is 0.4%.  That number only pertains to symptomatic cases, which, according to CDC estimates, comprise 65% of all cases.  If one includes asymptomatic infections, then the implied overall US Corona virus mortality rate is about 0.26%.  Stated differently, if 1,000 people contracted the virus, fewer than 3 of those individuals would be expected to die from it.  

For those of you who think this is “Monday morning quarterbacking,” please have a look at the following NE Journal of Medicine article lead-published by Anthony S. Fauci on March 26th, 2020.  In particular, this paragraph (italics mine):

“On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%.4  In another article in the Journal, Guan et al.5 report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease severity.  If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2

Contrast the above COVID-19 or Corona virus assumptions (as published on March 26th, 2020 by the Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the CDC, Anthony S. Fauci) and the ever-increasing confirmations of a benign overall Corona virus death rate with an utterly and insanely destructive Corona virus policy response in which much of the population was “locked down,” in one way or another — lockdowns instead isolating and protecting the most vulnerable members of society, as was previously done during pandemics to typically great overall effect.

In fact, with society opening back up and new cases spiking, the overall Corona virus mortality rate is increasingly converging with that of more benign modern-day pandemics, and could end up being lower, perhaps significantly lower, the more younger people are free to resume normal lives and lifestyles (herd immunity dynamics)*. With this in mind, will society be well-served by revisiting lockdowns? 

Below a graphic depiction of the the expanding divergence between new US Corona virus cases and new US Corona virus deaths as an indication as to where Corona virus mortality rate is currently heading (south!): 

Or, please see: https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid?country=~USA.  As regards “Our World in Data’s” political orientation, please click here.  (Sadly, if the left, the statist bureaucrats, and the pathetic RINOs have their way, we will soon be doubling down on lockdown and shutdown policy lunacy based on spiking new daily Corona virus cases juxtaposed against broadly declining new daily Corona virus deaths, which on June 30th comprised only 4.5% of average daily deaths in the US of 7,708 people.)

I reviewed this topic at considerable length in part of my most recent video (as of 18:56 minute mark): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wr5LvK10rWs.  And I’ve also delved into considerable detail as concerns Florida in this matter.

If all that leaves you “cold,” please dwell on this KISS principle for a moment.  The global population is said to be 7.8bn.  The world, well into this disease’s “life-cycle,” has suffered 516K Corona virus-induced deaths to date, according to a Google/Wikipedia aggregation.  That means that 0.01% of the world’s population (and 0.02% of Florida’s population) has succumbed to the Corona virus.  Yet, the policy makers’ virus shutdown/lockdown responses have triggered unparalleled (Post WWII) job losses, unmatched economic collapses, a peerless plunge in world trade, and unheralded increases in debt and money printing that, collectively, are already doing (and threaten to continue to do) MUCH, MUCH more harm than the Corona virus ever could.  Which is why I titled the first video I devoted to this back on March 22nd , 2020 “Is the cure is worse than the disease?”  

A close, long-standing friend of mine (I got to know him during the CFA study sessions in Massachusetts and North Carolina between 1988 and 1990) has been at least a bit critical of my harping on this virus policy response issue.  He is concerned that I may be putting my (once?) solid analytical reputation at risk by throwing my hat into the ring here again and again, and in the process risking a widening credibility gap if I pick up on something that turns out to be less than “well-vetted.” This unfortunately does happen, from time to time.  But when it happens, I immediately apologize and draw it to the same people’s attention I first shared it with.  In short, I am trying to “see the forest without getting every tree right.”

As such, I am much more concerned about what is going to happen to our already badly damaged rule of law and what is left of free market capitalism and freedom (“the forest”) as a result of grotesque, liberty-eviscerating, small business-killing virus policy diktats issued by public officials and public employees that are often entrenched in well-paid positions with gold-plated pension and healthcare benefits.  In particular, and in addition to “blue state” governors,  I am referring to unelected, unaccountable bureaucrats at various levels of government that are politically motivated.  Individuals who have gotten “punch drunk” on their “lockdown power.”  Persons that wouldn’t know how to spell “cost/benefit analysis” if their lives depended on it. And, last but not least, pampered people who have shown little if any compunction when issuing diktats to close down small businesses for months at a time — which is bankrupting them — or then imposing re-opening regulations (social distancing, masks, etc.) that virtually guarantee many Main Street businesses’ ultimate demise.

With nearly half of all private sector Americans (and a similar percentage of most other western citizens) employed by small businesses, this is no idle concern, especially as nearly half of all small businesses in America have made it known that they will eventually be forced to close their doors for good.  With so much debt, such large deficits, and so many bad investments/malinvestments courtesy of what effectively amounts to financial repression (ZIRP, NIRP, and QE) already weighing heavily on future national and global prospects, on real growth potential, and on the best outcome for the greatest number of economic participants and citizens, the American/OECD nations’ despotic Corona virus policy response is materially dimming already cloudy prospects.

Socialism never works, except for the elites.

Greetings,

Dan

* In everyday terms: the risk for the average person in the US of succumbing to the Corona virus is approximately equivalent to the risk of dying behind the steering wheel.  Last I checked, we can still get in our cars and drive places …  Hope dies last.

FYI: Stylistic improvements, additional source links, and tertiary expansions of topics addressed were made past the initial July 2nd, 2020 publishing date.  That said, neither the post’s initial content or its stance were altered. In terms of a sustained and very marked decline in Corona virus deaths in the US from its weekly high point of 16,987 as of April 18th to 181 for the week ended July 11th, 2020, click here.   

The obligatory boilerplate:

This commentary is not intended as investment advice or as an investment recommendation. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Price and yield are subject to daily change and as of the specified date. Information provided is solely the opinion of the author at the time of writing.  Nothing in the commentary should be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell securities. Information provided has been prepared from sources deemed to be reliable but is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision.  Liquid securities can fall in value.

 

Post #60: The road to serfdom

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The road to serfdom

Below please find my “edited for post presentation” comments to Greg Hunter’s interview with Dr. Paul Graig Roberts, which was made available on youtube on April 14th.

Paul Craig Roberts – We Need Debt Jubilee or System Collapses

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cpi04VA1XQg&feature=push-u-sub&attr_tag=AnLXSY_hs3l6Y_d7%3A6

DK ANALYTICS

1 day ago (edited)

Thanks, Greg, for the interview.  Frankly, I’m amazed by Dr. Paul Graig Roberts’ nationalization/debt forgiveness recipe as the only cure.  When has nationalization of an economy anywhere in the world ever led to a good outcome for the majority of the people, be it in terms of freedom or economic prosperity?  How can he de facto be willing to entrust the same lawless big wig scoundrels that are never committed of any crime or do any time to suddenly “grow a conscience” or to do what’s right for the supposed true sovereigns, the people.  How naive is that?  The bigger the government gets, the less constitutional it is, and the more cronyism and redistributionism and money printing there is.  This is the opposite of letting the “system clear.”  It is also at odds with human nature, free market incentives, the Invisible Hand of Adam Smith, enterprise, and thrift, the collective backbones of a wealthy and free society. 

It also known as socialism, be it the fascist or the communist variety.  Socialism IS the road to serfdom for vast majority of the population!  Therefore, Roberts’  authoritarian recipe to finish off the little constitutional fidelity that’s left and to print the money to bail out the very corporations that he correctly said bought back stock, leveraged their balance sheets, and went overseas to produce is both inconsistent and conducive to yet more moral hazard.  And, if we really want to bring companies back to America, let’s clean up our own backyard first, starting with massive reform of the very litigation and regulatory insanity that has long pushed lots of companies overseas in the first place!

Staying in the private sector that needs to be bailed out ….  After Roberts’ recommended bailout of citizens via, I suppose, the Fed buying all the private household debt that can’t be serviced just like all the corporate debt that can’t be serviced (Wall Street always gets bailed out by the Fed taking junk bonds off its hands at way above market prices if the Treasury/the taxpayer doesn’t do it such as with TARP), is work incentive-killing, supply-withering, unaffordable universal basic income next?   I ask this because you can’t issue a “nationalist, Constitution-finishing edict” that states that all the off-shored jobs and factories “have to come home” and expect a viable system of thousands of components suppliers to suddenly reappear “overnight” after decades of outsourcing!

And what will that universal basic income buy if the currency being issued hugely exceeds real GDP growth and becomes increasingly worthless thanks to even more money printing as foreigners ditch the dollar and the Fed’s balance sheet expands even more as it “soaks up dollars coming home” because no one else will?   Plus,  what happens to hurting creditors, very much including pension funds invested in bonds (about 40% of allocations) when, on top of a decade plus of yield deprivation run for the benefit of debtors, their bonds are suddenly worth only “50 cents on the dollar?”   Is this not massively doubling down on moral hazard?  And aren’t the real suckers the people that lived frugally, the companies that didn’t binge on debt but instead invested in organic growth, and the states that have managed their finances relatively well?  Is this the right signal to send to those that tried to do the right thing, financially and economically?  Hello!

Moreover, on the heels of such a debt jubilee or Fed assumption of non-performing/junk debt, what will the cost of money be, i.e., after the SAVERS/creditors get screwed royally, again very much including Main Street’s pension asset owners?  How much pension income will they have on the heels of such a “jubilee” with which to buy anything?  Instead of just having to sell their bonds and stocks because there are no coupons or dividends worth a damn, they won’t even be able to “burn their furniture to stay warm!”

Which creditor, with his suddenly “50% lower net worth,” will again lend money at 1%, 2%, or 3% after that, much less have any funds left to lend?   How is this supposed to help encourage the very savings that will be necessary to rebuild America’s manufacturing might, which will take decades to fully accomplish, just as it took decades to lose (think Apple’s Jobs, who said he couldn’t do “relocalization” of Apple’s nearly exlusive Chinese/Asian manufacturing if he wanted to, because the manufacturing skills and the expansive requisite supplier base is nowhere to be found in America!).

Roberts’ “solution” is irrationality, much like continuing to bail out Wall Street and K Street cronies is counterproductive theft, i.e., highly destructive folly for 99% of Americans!  Plus, it is also about as far removed from the very Constitution (clearly LIMITED and delineated government powers, separation of powers, sound money, federalism, extensive property right protections) that brought the country the greatest wealth and individual freedom ever known to mankind, which all happened prior to the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913 and prior to the disastrous 16th Amendment (federal income tax) and the anti-federalism 17th Amendment (election of federal senators through direct votes instead of via state governments), all of which conspired to fuel a growing central government leviathan doing the bidding of the elites in DC (elected officials, un-elected bureaucrats numbering over 2m, and their crony pals on K Street and Wall Street) as enabled by counterfeit currency/the printing press.

That same “toxic public policy stew” has given us $1.9trn in annual regulatory compliance costs and litigation costs as a percentage of GDP that exceed Europe’s by a factor of nearly 3:1!  All this has stymied the majority of Main Street entrepreneurs, who have long had to make extortionist payments to regulators instead of investing in organic growth, who have long been afraid to bring new products to market because of litigation fears, and who have long been prevented from expanding the payrolls or the salaries, as that money instead went to statist bureaucrats and their crony hangers on.   Who wants more of this “business model” via nationalizing capital markets, nationalizing corporations, and nationalizing individual finances and income?  Really?

Moreover, if Roberts is duly concerned with “forced vaccinations” courtesy of demented, power-hungry, “reduce the global population to 900 million people carrying capacity”  Bill Gates and other such “lovely” people (e.g., Soros), who are pushing this Orwellian enterprise together with the government bureaucrats from Dr. Fauci’s CDC on down, how can Roberts possibly invest yet more trust into the type of tenured, sheltered, un-elected, un-representative, overpaid, power-hungry bureaucratic statists that are in bed with Wall Street and K Street kleptocrats  pushing cronyism/fascism?  BTW, members of this same “fine,” “fourth estate,” utterly unconstitutional bureaucracy have facilitated record student debt, record professor compensation packages and perks, “Rome, revisited” like college campus expansions, and destructive indoctrination instead of education.  How can Roberts trust them or willingly EMPOWER such “technocrats” to “do the right thing” when it comes to a “debt jubilee” or any other totalitarian enterprise they engage in?  And this from the “father” of supply-side economics?  Wow, wow, wow! 

How about trying revisiting the Constitution, from A to Z, instead, Dr. Roberts, and you’ll get your supply back and your jobs back and your wealth back, brick by brick, which will likely take the better part of a generation.  And the only way to (re)start everyone’s engines is to open back up for business NOW!  Since when has an influenza with an average death rate, when measuring the broad population, EVER given the authorities the despotic power to shut down most of the country – talk about the ultimate hollowing out of the 5th Amendment’s Takings Clause protections! (Never mind what this has done to civil liberties such as the 1st and 4th Amendment rights, i.e., the freedom to assemble and to privacy protections!)

In short, we have to revisit sanity, what works, and the real world.  But please, Dr. Supply Side, do not advocate doing it through even more central planning.  Let us not double down on the road to serfdom.  We don’t need to go from bad to worse.  To a full-fledged Banana Republic or to “Back in the USSR!”  Good grief, who’d have ever thought … that the only viable allocation response was to include the ultimate insurance against such totalitarian policies, namely physical precious metals inclusion? 

Ironically, and most sadly and destructively, the globally debilitating Corona virus “shutdown” response is hastening the day when confidence in counterfeit currency policy is overwhelmed by its insidious and metastasizing progeny, namely gaping deficits, unparalleled debt, unequaled malinvestments/misallocations, plummeting productivity growth which new “virus regs” will only worsen, increasingly maligned and eviscerated Main Street property right protections, and now millions of weekly pink slips unlike anything ever seen before.  In plain English: with 22m Americans filing for unemployment insurance, or some 12% of the civilian labor force within one month; with record small business closings on the horizon; with supply lines drying up; and with an existential crisis threatening ever more people, the politicians, the bureaucrats, and the above the law “1%” continue to remain lavishly employed and compensated like never before in history

In all, this threatens the very “system collapse” that Dr. Roberts correctly predicts, in my view, be it socially, politically, financially, or economically (they are all tied at the hip).  Unfortunately, doubling down on yet more unsound money-enabled statism/cronyism while restricting commerce, which is what our collective “Corona virus” policy response has been and will likely continue to be, especially given the November election drawing closer, will only expedite and significantly worsen our “day of reckoning.”  Why?  Because our toxic policy determined by increasingly unconstitutional “authorities” will fail to allow for the very “system clearing reset” (also known as Creative Destruction) to occur that would set the stage for a return to the rule of law, to free market incentives, to property right protections for Main Street makers, to productivity, and thus to “supply side” growth. With a self-enriching, moral hazard-inducing, pork barrel-addicted, fiat money-enabled government refusing to get out of the way, unequaled “double jeopardy” is on offer, which is most worryingly being worsened by soaring approval ratings garnered by totalitarian governors shutting down their states on the one hand, and demanding federal taxpayer rescues on the other hand — “federalism” financed by “the Feds!”   Call it a one-two knockout punch of economic shutdowns worsened with yet more counterfeit currency creation and ever more pronounced statism (socialism).

 

FYI: links were added after the initial publication date in order to provide the reader with articles that expounded on various assertions (money printing, cronyism, infection rate, etc.) that I have made in this post.  Same holds true for select content extensions, very much including the closing paragraph, which will hopefully better underpin why we are most unfortunately on “the road to serfdom.”  Therefore, this post “stretches” my initial comments made on Greg Hunter’s youtube channel.

The obligatory boilerplate:

This commentary is not intended as investment advice or as an investment recommendation. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Price and yield are subject to daily change and as of the specified date. Information provided is solely the opinion of the author at the time of writing.  Nothing in the commentary should be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell securities. Information provided has been prepared from sources deemed to be reliable but is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision.  Liquid securities can fall in value.

Post #59: A youtube comment section exchange about the “policy response” to the Corona virus

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Dan here, dkanalytics.com editor.  It is Sunday, April 5th, 2020.

Allow me to draw your attention to an April 3rd comment exchange between a youtube subscriber to my channel, Mike, and myself.  I will add some food-for-thought links at the bottom of the page that relate to my comments.  Sage subscriber Mike wrote the following in the comments section of my youtube micro channel — also “creatively” (not!) called dkanalytics.  Here goes:

Mike’s thoughts:

Thanks Dan. I did watch the Jay video and I also discussed this virus with my brother (the immunologist). He advised that the problem with this virus is the speed of transmission which is not fully understood. He mentioned that the advisors to the government are also the same people who would be caught very shorthanded with a medical system unable to cope.

The basic (and belated) idea is to slow the infection rate through social distancing so that hospitals will cope better over a more drawn out period. If not, overwhelming numbers of presenting pneumonia patients will die at a greater rate along with the very many usual IC patients.

It hasn’t been handled well from the outset and vested interests are milking this crisis for all its worth, as you say. South Korea led the way very early in this crisis and provided an excellent model for all the countries that are now suffering. But did anyone else take it seriously from the get go ?. Short answer, no. Very good content. Thanks again.

My thoughts:

Thanks a lot, Mike. And thanks for sharing the invaluable insight gleaned from your immunologist brother. Thanks too for confirming the rapidly spreading nature of the disease. Obviously, this is very difficult to contain — and then to deal with, at the institutional/healthcare level. A German immunologist that I listened to also addressed this aspect. He made two remarks that stuck in my mind. First, people intuitively avoid social gatherings when they are sick or feel sick — especially when influenzas are paying their “seasonal visits.” Second, overwhelmed hospitals in both Italy and Spain are largely the result of creaky infrastructure, lacking equipment, poor planning, very poor hospital sanitation, and (at least in Italy) an older population that is already “compromised” and practices poor hygiene. As a result, Italian hospitals quickly became overwhelmed (happening in NYC as well, for similar reasons and given the “global city” nature of the place), sharply increasing the overall death rate from all kinds of ailments in the process. That same immunologist mentioned that German hospitals, with spare capacity (about a week ago), were taking very ill patients from Italy and Spain, and still had excess capacity. FL governor DeSantis recently issued more decrees to (relatively) modestly reduce freedom of movement, while mentioning that FL hospitals — in aggregate — were in a very good position in terms of beds and ventilators, but that Florida would only take ill Floridian cruise ship passengers while arranging for pickups (I believe with the Coast Guard) of non-resident foreign nationals by their respective country governments.

Separately, I continue to hope that politically incorrect immunologists’ assertion that increasing data about a broad spectrum of people that have been exposed to the Corona virus (a cross cut, if you will) will bear out the fact that the fatality rate of this rapidly spreading virus isn’t too different from other viruses. More data will tell. And, if this is in fact true, i.e., that a lot more people than we know have been exposed to the virus and the vast majority have been able to render it harmless (developed antibodies), then perhaps the rapid transmission rate amongst the broad population has a silver lining via providing “nature’s immunization,” which will hopefully help slow and eventually terminate the damage, from terrible deaths to system overload, that this virus iteration has “unleashed.” As you can gather, this is what I am hanging my hat on, as I lament and fear the “virus response” (the cure may be worse than the disease”).

Lastly, perhaps if the Chinese “authorities” had been more forthcoming, instead of apparently killing doctors that were banging the pots and pans, we might have gotten a faster “heads up,” and could have shielded the most vulnerable members of our population in a “laparoscopic” fashion rather than take out a “kill the economy while socializing and nationalizing it with printed money*” bazooka. Of course, and as you state, information is one thing. How well our bureaucrats would have reacted is obviously another!

* – That printed money bazooka looks like this (please see far right “vertical trajectory”):

Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL

Sincerely, Dan

Some links that you might find of interest related to discussed topic; please note that certain links, towards bottom, have been added after the post’s publishing date because I think are illustrative of our current dilemma:

LITERALLY Shutting Down the World for NOTHING – CV “EXPERT” Anthony Fauci Spills the Beans

Questioning Conventional Wisdom in the COVID-19 Crisis, with Dr. Jay Bhattacharya

Prof. Dr. Stefan Hockertz aktuell zur Corona-Krise

Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?

Is Our Fight Against Coronavirus Worse Than the Disease?

A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data

CORONAVIRUS: Globalism’s Perfect Storm: https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1563&v=qG33IKaX_yM&feature=emb_logo

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/04/must-see-video-california-doctors-immunology-say-sick-elderly-quarantined-businesses-open-state-pressuring-drs-add-covid-19-numbers/

 

Post publication content on “confirmed cases” below courtesy of the Macro Strategy Partnership in London (April 6th, 2020):

The number of confirmed cases worldwide rose 6.0% on Sunday to 1,274,923, the lowest percentage increase since the 10th March. The number of active cases rose 6.1% on the day to 1,014,333. In absolute terms, the daily increase (number rather than percent) in active cases fell to 58,493 from 83,158. It was the smallest absolute increase for 6 days. It should be noted that the data is revised continually so the numbers may differ slightly from Friday, but the trends are very clear.

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The obligatory boilerplate:

This commentary is not intended as investment advice or as an investment recommendation. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Price and yield are subject to daily change and as of the specified date. Information provided is solely the opinion of the author at the time of writing.  Nothing in the commentary should be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell securities. Information provided has been prepared from sources deemed to be reliable but is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision.  Liquid securities can fall in value.

 

Post #58: Recession Morphing Into Depression: Cure WORSE Than Disease? – Interview with Crush the Street’s Kenneth Ameduri

 

The obligatory boilerplate:

This commentary is not intended as investment advice or as an investment recommendation. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Price and yield are subject to daily change and as of the specified date. Information provided is solely the opinion of the author at the time of writing.  Nothing in the commentary should be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell securities. Information provided has been prepared from sources deemed to be reliable but is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision.  Liquid securities can fall in value.